NBA Bold Predictions
Believe it or not, the start of the NBA Betting season is rapidly approaching, and the start of the pre-season is right around the corner. This is literally sports overload for us gamblers, as we already have enough on our plate with the start of the NFL season, college football season, and the push for the playoffs in Major League Baseball…not to mention college basketball right around the corner, as well. But you can never analyze too much, so that said, here are my bold predictions for all the sports gamblers out there ahead of the 2009-2010 tip-off.
The Celtics will win the Eastern Conference. I’m not going to include any “if they’re healthy” disclaimers because the same thing can go for all teams, but think about this. The core that slipped by the Bulls and put up a fight against Orlando has another year of experience from which to draw on – by itself. Now factor in a hungry, determined Kevin Garnett, and the Cavs are waiting another year for LeBron to get to the big show. If you’re betting on records, the Celtics should top 60 wins again this year.
Speaking of LeBron, here’s my Cavs prediction. The addition of Shaq won’t be all that much more of a factor than the addition of Ben Wallace was. The Cavs might be hot out of the gates again, but Shaq’s pretty old, and he’ll wear out before they hit the 30-game mark. The Cavs still lack depth, and it proved to be a thorn in their side last year…not that the Magic are 12 deep, but the other teams vying for the Eastern crown got stronger and deeper, while the Cavs just got a little older.
The NBA Odds are against Ben Gordon helping the Pistons advance in the playoffs. The guy has some explosive offensive moves, but he’s a horrible defender and too wild. Take it from a Bulls fan, you’re excited and terrified every time you see him spot up, usually off-balance. If anything, this is a step away from the defensive-oriented, team ball the Pistons lived on a few years ago.
Blake Griffin will not be a Clippers savior. That’s not to say he won’t be rookie of the year, but he could grab that with 14ppg and 6 rebounds. It’s a weak crop this year folks…and maybe there is a Chris Paul hiding in there somewhere, but we won’t look back on this group like they’re the 1994-1995 class.
The Bulls 72-10 record is in jeopardy. And you don’t know how much it pains me to say that. But when you look at just the Artest addition to the Lakers, it adds depth, options, and an incredible defensive tandem not seen since Michael and Scottie. You’d have to have a serious fix going for the Lakers to lose the championship this year, and we know that never happens in the NBA.
Too many decks in Black Jack
I had a discussion recently with someone about the typical black jack game here in Florida, and whether it was winnable on a regular basis. We’re looking at a standard 8-deck game with about 6.5 decks penetration on the cut. Are there certain spreads that work better than others in this situation? Do you need a spread; can you crack the game by counting and playing just one hand? All good questions, let’s take a look at some strategy here.
First of, if you are using card-counting as a tool to win, then avoid the eight-deck games when a six-deck one is available. Although the difference in reducing the house edge amounts to only a decimal of a percentage point, the count has significantly more variation, and that’s the area where you can gain an edge. An eight-deck count remains around -1 and +1 true count more.
Aside from that, something else we need to determine is whether the dealer hits on soft 17. It makes a statistical difference. If the dealer stands, even with an eight-deck game with the aforementioned penetration, you can make money, but you’ll certainly have to be aggressive with your betting at the table. That doesn’t mean necessarily playing more that one hand at a time, though. If the dealer hits on 17, it hurts you as a player, so the smartest thing to do is probably not get involved with that game, and try to find something with more favorable player odds.
The bottom line, though, is that the eight-deck black jack online game is a tough one, especially without a favorable penetration, whether you’re counting or not. And when other restrictive rules get put into place like a 6:5 payoff on blackjack, no surrender option, or the H17 rule, it makes it almost not worth it to sit at the table. It makes me wonder why casinos offer these games in the first place, but they must be making money from someone.
Avoid playing double hands if these are the rules at the table, too. All it will do is double the same weighted house odds against you. Sure, you get to see a few more cards, and that can statistically help you if you’re counting, but it’s not enough to justify the risk of putting up twice as much money with the probabilities stacked against you. If you can find a six-deck game, though, with a favorable penetration that you feel good about, playing a second hand isn’t out of the question at all.
NASCAR: Upcoming race
With the Pep Boys 500 behind us (and Kasey Kahne chalking one up in the winner’s column), all eyes on the Sprint chase for the cup series turns to race 26 of 36, the Chevy Rock and Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway – set for Saturday at 7 p.m., and you can watch it on NBC.
Kahne’s victory puts him at 11th in the point standings, but he’s still looking up at Tony Stewart on down through Mark Martin, even if he is currently above the cutoff for the playoffs. Kahne may have built up a bit of a reputation of choking over the last couple seasons (although many think it was just a case of him not getting the right car), but it looks like he might be hitting a stride here at just the right time. If he keeps his wits on the race track, I’d bet him in a one-on-one against anyone besides Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon. Yes, I’d take him over Tony Stewart and both Busch men on any track through the rest of the season.
Can he win again? That, of course, waits to be seen, but I wouldn’t do any heavy nascar betting on it. So few races left in the regular Cup season, and Sunday was Kasey’s first win. I can see him pulling out a couple more Top 5 finishes with ease, but to take the checkered flag again might be a bit of a long shot.
So who’s the favorite heading into Saturday? I like Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards. They both run these tracks well, and are due for another top finish. Head-to-head, if you’re looking for that action, Gordon over Stewart, Stewart over Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman over Denny Hamlin and the aforementioned matchups involving Kahne. Just watch the lines on those matchups, though. If someone’s coming in an overwhelming favorite, like a nascar betting odds of -160 or higher, it’s always a red flag. That’s too much to put up vs. the risk that something will go wrong and they’ll fall back in the pack, or at least further back than the guy you’ve got him pitted up against.
All I know is if we get more races like Sunday’s beauty, we’ll be in for a treat the rest of the season. Always good to see racing instead of the typical follow-the-leader that springs up over the year.
Betting at the End of the NFL Season
If you are a new handicapper, then this is going to be a great article that will definitely help you from losing money at the end of the season. Every single NFL season, during the last 1-2 weeks there are always a couple of teams that really need to win and a couple teams that could care less whether they win or lose. You may be wondering why a team would not want to win, but it is simply because they have already secured a playoff spot and often already have home field advantage locked up.
The last couple of weeks of the NFL season are always the most difficult for online football betting. Even veteran cappers often have trouble staying away from certain lines. When a playoff bound team is listed as an underdog in the last two weeks of the season, there is often a good reason for this. Generally, the team will be resting most of their players for most of the game or possibly the entire game. The last thing a playoff bound team wants to do in the last week or two of the season is injure a star player.
If you notice any lines that seem too good to be true, do not go and bet your bankroll on the game thinking it is a mistake or something. The sports book will never make a mistake posting odds and if they do then the bet would be voided anyways. Always do your research on the game before ever committing any of your money. Many websites will post detailed match-up reports every week, which come in handy for cappers. The important information that you want to find out is what the two teams are playing for and what players are planned to start the game.
Even the worst NFL teams will smoke the bench team of the best NFL team in most cases, and this is why the line would be posted as so. During the last two weeks of the NFL odds season, your best bet is to focus only on the teams that have something to play for. You do not really want to lay your money on any team that does not have anything to play for, as you just never know what form and mindset they will bring to the game. Look for teams that are still fighting for a playoff spot or trying to secure home field advantage. First place teams love securing home field advantage and they will generally keep their players in the game until they have a good lead. If the spread is high on the team trying to secure home field advantage, then you want to be careful because these teams are only looking to win by 1 point and don’t care about any spread.